The escalation in the Middle East is no longer just a regional security issue, but is rapidly evolving into a global economic shock with potentially devastating consequences for food security worldwide.
The World Food Programme (WFP) warns that the number of people worldwide facing acute food insecurity could reach record levels in 2026 if the ongoing escalation in the Middle East continues to destabilize the global economy. If the conflict does not end by mid-year and oil prices remain above USD 100 per barrel, the WFP estimates that an additional 45 million people could fall into acute food insecurity or worse, adding to the 318 million already affected worldwide.
Global numbers of food-insecure people could reach levels last seen at the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. When the conflict began in 2022, it triggered a global cost-of-living crisis that drove hunger to record levels, affecting approximately 349 million people. According to the WFP, current projections suggest a similar trajectory in the coming months should the Middle East conflict persist. During the 2022 crisis, food prices surged rapidly but declined only gradually, leaving vulnerable households unable to afford basic staples for prolonged periods.
However, unlike the Ukraine war, which directly affected a major grain-producing region, the current crisis operates through energy markets, revealing the structural interdependence of global systems. Disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and growing risks to Red Sea routes are already driving up energy, fuel, and fertilizer costs, with cascading effects on global food prices. These dynamics are extending the impact of the conflict far beyond the region, disproportionately affecting the most vulnerable populations.
WFP Deputy Executive Director and Chief Operating Officer Carl Skau warned that, should the conflict persist, it would generate global shockwaves, hitting hardest those already unable to meet their basic food needs.
Moreover, the burden of geopolitical instability falls disproportionately on import-dependent states in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. For example, Sudan imports around 80 percent of its wheat, making it highly vulnerable to price increases that risk pushing additional households into hunger. Similarly, in Somalia, already affected by severe drought, the price of essential commodities has risen by at least 20 percent since the onset of the conflict. Both countries have experienced famine in recent years and remain highly exposed to further deterioration.
Further increases in food insecurity, if not matched by increased resources, could have catastrophic consequences for the world’s most vulnerable countries, which are already at risk of famine.
