According to the latest ACLED data, contemporary conflicts are becoming increasingly severe as a result of interconnected global and local dynamics: reduced restraint by governments and armed groups, the normalization of violence against civilians, declining prospects for peacemaking, persistent cycles of civilian insecurity, and the weakening of humanitarian systems.
Global Trends Shaping Conflict Today
High levels of conflict are the new normal. Armed actors across the globe are increasingly willing to use force while openly disregarding political, legal, and humanitarian consequences. ACLED recorded more than 185,000 violent events worldwide in 2025, twice the number registered in 2021. Europe and the Middle East experienced the most significant shifts in violence levels.
In Europe, following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, ACLED recorded 37,279 military events that year. Since then, violence has continued to escalate, reaching 83,884 military events by 28 November 2025. By contrast, violence in the Middle East declined after peaking in 2024. Reductions in Israeli and Turkish air campaigns in Lebanon and Iraq, fragile ceasefires in Lebanon and Gaza, and the end of Syria’s civil war contributed to a 48% decrease in overall violence compared to 2024 levels.
States are responsible for a growing share of global violence. Government forces were directly involved in 74% of violent events worldwide in 2025, the highest share recorded since ACLED reached global coverage six years ago. This trend reflects the erosion of democratic and international norms, enabling governments to deploy force with fewer constraints both domestically and abroad.
Israel and Russia are collectively responsible for 88% of all violent incidents targeting civilians outside their borders in 2025, driven by their prolonged wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. Meanwhile, the Myanmar military accounts for nearly one-third of all violence committed by state forces against their own citizens, highlighting the growing normalization of internal repression as a mode of governance.
The proliferation of drone warfare is reshaping conflict dynamics. Armed groups are increasingly adopting drone technology to expand their operational reach. As of 2025, ACLED records 469 non-state armed groups — including insurgents, militias, gangs, and transnational cartels — that have deployed drones in at least one attack over the past five years. Notably, 58 groups used drones for the first time in 2025, illustrating how technologies once reserved for states are now accessible to non-state actors capable of innovating with limited resources.
Violent Islamist groups remain a persistent and adaptive threat. Despite a 13% decline in Islamic State activity globally, local affiliates intensified their operations in Somalia, Niger, and Mozambique, consolidating the group’s strategic pivot toward Africa. Approximately 79% of Islamic State’s global activity in the first 11 months of 2025 occurred in Africa, up from 49% in 2024, signaling a geographical reconfiguration rather than a decline in threat.
Impact on Civilians and Global Security
The declining restraint of state and non-state armed actors in contemporary conflicts has had profound consequences for civilian populations. Today’s conflicts are increasingly characterized by reduced restraint and the widespread targeting of non-combatants, with armed actors more willing to use violence indiscriminately and with limited concern for accountability.
In 2025, one in six people worldwide was exposed to conflict. ACLED recorded more than 56,000 incidents of violence directed at civilians, the highest level observed in the past five years. An estimated 831 million people, equivalent to 16% of the global population, lived in areas affected by armed conflict, underscoring the expanding geographic and demographic footprint of violence.
Civilians are not only facing more violence overall, but also a growing share of state-led violence. Incidents of violence against civilians perpetrated by government forces have tripled since 2020. In 2025, states were responsible for 35% of all global violence targeting civilians, up from 20% in 2020. This reflects a broader decline in adherence to international humanitarian norms and an increasing willingness by governments to deploy force with minimal restraint.
At the same time, non-state armed groups and mobs remain the primary perpetrators of civilian harm, responsible for approximately two-thirds of all violence targeting civilians and 59% of civilian fatalities in 2025. This highlights the fragmentation of conflict environments and the growing difficulty of protecting civilians amid overlapping state, insurgent, militia, and criminal violence.
Together, these trends point to a global security environment in which civilians face unprecedented exposure to violence, while both state and non-state actors operate with diminishing constraints, contributing to protracted instability and escalating humanitarian risk.
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