No optimistic future lies ahead for 2026. As global conflicts multiply and intensify, the International Crisis Group (ICG) has identified ten major conflict-related scenarios to watch closely over the year. Drawing on developments from 2025, these scenarios show how violence is spreading across regions and how diplomatic efforts have struggled to maintain pace. This is the case in Ukraine, Sudan, Myanmar, Gaza, and the Sahel, alongside dangerous flashpoints involving Iran, Venezuela, Ethiopia–Eritrea, and Afghanistan-Pakistan.
Through the analysis of these conflicts, the ICG’s President and CEO Comfort Ero and Executive Vice President Richard Atwood warn that fragile ceasefires, shifting power politics, and weakened international norms are making the global security environment increasingly volatile, with civilians bearing the heaviest costs.
What would we expect from 2026?
Looking at the ten major conflict hotspots, several patterns emerge.
One clear pattern is that it becomes difficult for negotiators and leaders to reach lasting peace agreements, as seen in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar, where prolonged fighting, external backing, and military actions continue to devastate civilian populations. Instead, short framework deals and temporary ceasefires are becoming the norm. While these arrangements can reduce violence and allow humanitarian access, they leave core disputes and conflicts unresolved and offer no clarity about the post-conflict future, as warring parties often resist compromise. President Trump’s approach fits this pattern, opting for quicker deals with uncertain outcomes, as in the Gaza ceasefire plan, which stalled in implementation while Palestinian civilians continued to bear the brunt of Israeli military action. A similar dynamic is seen in Syria, where U.S.-mediated engagement with President Ahmed al-Sharaa secured international recognition and eased sanctions, but left the country’s internal conflicts unresolved and civilians at risk.
Another clear pattern is the normalization of violence as a policy tool and a throwback to great power spheres of influence. The resurgence of coercive force in discourse and military action is shaping today’s geopolitical landscape. U.S. pressure on Venezuela has escalated in 2026, with a large-scale strike to capture President Nicolás Maduro. In the aftermath of military strikes against Iranian nuclear facilities, the Trump administration threatens intervention in Iran as deadly crackdowns on protests fuel internal unrest. Elsewhere, this return to power politics is evident in the Horn of Africa, where Ethiopia and Eritrea are approaching interstate war, and in South Asia, where tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan continue to spill into cross-border violence.
A third pattern emerging is the weakening of multilateralism and international legal norms. The turn toward short-term deals and coercive force has coincided with open hostility toward collective institutions. Under President Trump, repeated delegitimisation of the UN, cuts to peacekeeping and humanitarian funding, and reduced cooperation with allies weaken conflict management mechanisms and further undermine shared rules and accountability. The European Union, while committed to international law, shows growing fatigue and inconsistency in defending it with one voice, especially vis-à-vis its NATO ally. Trump’s threat to conquer Greenland has inflamed tensions among European members and risks setting a precedent that could encourage expansionist behaviour by other major powers, including Russia and China.
Taken together, the picture remains troublesome. The International Crisis Group’s ten scenarios point to a year in which instability and violence are likely to persist and the human cost of war will continue to rise, unless diplomacy, long-term peace planning, and respect for international rules are deliberately chosen by political leaders. The catastrophic humanitarian crises in Sudan, the instability and massive displacement in Venezuela and Myanmar, the trapped civilians in unresolved conflicts in Gaza, the Sahel, Ukraine all illustrate the urgent stakes at hand, highlighting the need for sustained international engagement and renovated action to protect civilians and prevent further suffering in 2026.
